USA: weaker economy and friendlier inflation figures, interest rate cuts still realistic. Europe: The European economy returned to positive growth in the first quarter. China: Trade tariffs complicating China’s shift away from real estate to hightech products.

Chart of the month

graphic shows change in working-age population (15-64) between 2024 and 2027 (United Nations forecasts)

According to United Nations projections, the working age population in the eurozone is set to decline already within the next three years, while it could increase slightly in the UK until 2030 and in the USA until 2050. As a result, potential growth in the eurozone will also decline in the coming years, unless politicians specifically promote skilled labour immigration. Spain, for example, already made corresponding residence permits more widely available in 2023. In Germany, a new immigration law has been in force since March.  However, the imminent demographic challenges will not be eliminated.

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