Eurozone: winter recession now inevitable following shutdown of Nord Stream 1, inflation continues to rise. US: further interest rate hikes necessary despite economic slowdown and declining inflation. China: lower GDP forecast 2023 despite possible small easing measures following the October party congress.
Chart of the month
The war in Ukraine, persistently high inflation rates and signs of imminent recession are all contributing to elevated uncertainty. However, there is a marked difference in perception of the economic crisis within Europe. The indices shown in the chart measure how often terms such as crisis or risk are used in economic reporting. While crisis sentiment is exceptionally high in Germany, uncertainty among our French neighbours is (still) lower than, for example, during Brexit or the 2017 presidential elections.