After its win in 2015, Swiss Life Asset Managers has for the second time received the “Forecast Accuracy Award Switzerland” for the best GDP and inflation forecast in 2017. The award compares the forecasts of more than 15 participating institutes.
Consensus Economics, the world’s leading economic survey organisation, announced the winners of the 2017 “Forecast Accuracy Awards”. With its award, the institute singles out the best forecasts of local GDP growth and inflation. For 2017, Consensus Economics compared the estimates of more than 15 participating institutes. Swiss Life Asset Managers has now been found the most reliable predictor for the second time, after its win in 2015.
Marc Brütsch, Chef Economist, Swiss Life Asset Managers, says: “Our 2017 GDP growth forecast was based on our assessment of the situation following the Swiss National Bank’s releasing the franc from its peg in January 2015. At the time we were not expecting an immediate recession because of the strong franc, although we did assume there would be a prolonged lean spell. As a result, at the beginning of 2016 we forecast GDP growth in 2017 of just 1.0%. The consensus forecast, meanwhile, was for 1.7% growth, and in the end 2017 saw the gross domestic product grow by 1.1%. We are pleased that our forecast was so close to the actual development.”
For 2018, Swiss Life Asset Managers is predicting a virtual doubling of Swiss GDP growth, to 2%. “Essentially we are expecting a slow-down of the global economic dynamic, which is why this forecast, and even more so that of 1.3% for 2019, is once again below the consensus. Inflation remains largely dependent on the development of the exchange rate. For the second half of 2018, we expect inflation rates of just over 1% – values that high have not been seen in Switzerland since spring of 2010”, notes Brütsch.
Go here for “Perspectives”, Swiss Life Asset Managers’ current estimates of the economic situation in industrialised and emerging countries as well as of the financial and real estate markets.
More information on the methodology of Consensus Economics and its determination of the accuracy of forecasts issued by survey participants: